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The share of renewables in the US generation mix will double by 2050

In its Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO2021 ), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that the share of renewables in the US electricity generation mix will increase from 21% in 2020 to 42% in 2050. Generation Wind and solar will be responsible for most of that growth.

The share of renewables is projected to increase as nuclear and coal generation declines and the share of natural gas generation remains relatively constant. By 2030, renewables will collectively overtake natural gas to be the predominant generation source in the United States. Solar power generation (which includes photovoltaic (PV) and thermal technologies and both small-scale and utility-scale installations) will overtake wind power by 2040 as the largest source of renewable generation in the United States.

The reference case AEO2021 projects that the share of natural gas in the US electricity generation mix will remain at approximately one third of total generation from 2020 to 2050. The share of natural gas in generation will remain stable although prices of natural gas will remain low (at or less than $ 3.50 per million British thermal units, in real dollars) for most of the projection period. This stability occurs despite significant closures of nuclear and coal generating units as a result of market competition, as market and regulatory factors induce increased generation of renewable electricity.

The ratio of generation to natural gas in the United States will remain relatively constant through 2050, as projected in Reference Case AEO2021, and the contribution from the coal and nuclear parks will be cut in half. Until 2050, the share of electricity generation from renewable energy will double. Wind power will be responsible for most of the growth in renewable generation from 2020 to 2024, accounting for two-thirds of the increase in that period.

After the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind is phased out in late 2024, solar generation will account for nearly 80% of the increase in renewable generation through 2050. According to guidance from the Internal Revenue Service, the EIA assumes that the utility company: Large-scale solar PV installations will receive an investment tax credit (ITC) of 30% until 2023, which will then be reduced to 10% starting in 2024. AEO2021 does not take eliminations into account of the production and investment tax credits (PTC and ITC) revised in the Consolidated Assignments Law 2021 that was approved in December 2020.

Because the costs of renewable energy technology and natural gas prices are key determinants of these projections, the EIA explores cases of sensitivity with different levels of renewable costs and price trajectories for natural gas. Consequently, the participation of renewable technology in generation will be greater in the cases of Low cost of renewable energies and High supply of oil and gas, in relation to the reference case, and the participation of generation from renewable energies will be lower in the cases of High cost of renewables and Low supply of oil and gas.

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